只有“加入者”和“出局者”
2026年,一名中国选手,刷新了黑人统治的世界半程马拉松的世界记录,把前任世界半程马拉松世界记录的创造者,乌干达选手雅各布·基普利的记录缩短了12.06%。
这位运动员的名字叫做“闪电”,最新的ai机器人,在2026年第二届北京人形机器人半程马拉松中夺冠。
ai已经不止一次击败了人类,这标志着,ai已经不再只存在于GPU和HBM里了,它已跨入天地之间,毫不停歇地奔跑。
中国是ai这一巨大漩涡的中心之一,自动驾驶出租车已经在武汉和深圳跑了两三年了,无人机空运外卖已经在深圳飞了两三年了,司机、外卖员等诸多工作的存在,比两段短藕间的细丝更脆弱,ai会在未来变得更强。
你本过着平静的小确幸的生活,忽有一天,ai不请自来,你该以何种态度面对,是厌恶还是恐惧,是无视还是蔑视,你对ai的态度,基本可分为两种,一种是恐惧ai,一种是不愿了解ai。我,恐惧ai。
ai的浪潮是不可阻挡的,这叫做“势”,人力无办法阻拦,巨浪拍过来的时候,你要么选择冒险在浪头上冲浪,要么选择被浪头拍死,你冷静思考后发现,你只有这两种选择,你不用ai,你不加入ai,不影响别的人继续开发,继续用。
在ai面前,你只有加入或对抗两种选择,你是要加入呢,还是对抗呢。你可能对抗一时,不能对抗一世,你还是加入吧,先加入的有福报,后加入的要吃亏。
加入得越晚,吃的亏越大。
未来500年,ai是人类本身最大的威胁
ai能干些什么呢?
ai能够换尿布,策划战争,杀猪,开船,设计房子,写十四行诗,结算账户,砌墙,接脱臼的骨头,安慰濒死的人,服从命令,发布命令,携手合作,独立行动,解数学方程,分析新问题,铲粪,电脑编程,做出可口的饭,也许未来会善打架,并比人类更勇敢地死去。
(科幻作者Robert A.Heinlein的描写人的文字,我把主语替换成了ai)
ai无所不能,那还要人干什么,ai会把所有人的活路都干了,然后人类坐享其成,是这样的吗?
如果无所不能的ai把人类所有的活路都包揽,相比于拯救,那更像是一种威胁。
ai威胁着所有人。
埃隆·马斯克是 AI 威胁论最著名的发声者之一。他曾多次称 AI 为人类面临的“最大生存威胁”,他称人类可能会沦为ai的“家畜”,并且,有这样担忧的不止他一人。
不过,这里我们先不谈那些远大的“摧毁人类文明”云云,先不去想象《终结者》或《黑客帝国》电影里人类与ai机器人大战的戏码,我们先谈谈当下要紧的事情,你和我饭碗的问题。
未来10年,ai是人类饭碗最大的威胁
在ai浪潮的突袭下,所有人的饭碗都岌岌可危了。
新事物大规模杀死旧事物,这种事情过去多次发生,当它再次发生的时候,请不要抱有侥幸。请别做无视ai的人,请不要做无视蒸汽机的织布工人,请不要做无视内燃机的马车夫。
人工智能就要来了,如果你无视它,你会沦落到什么样的下场,你会沦落到织布工人、马车夫、打字员一样的下场,失去了饭碗,抱有无明的愤怒,只能像是被蒸汽织布机抢走生计的织布工人一样,除了把机器砸成零件之外,别无其它办法发泄。
而现在情况更糟糕,ai来了,如果你不幸地处于不利的位置,你甚至连用物理破坏来发泄情绪都做不到,你只有像咽下刀片一样,把愤怒活生生咽下去,那该是多么悲惨啊。无视新事物,是被它碾碎的前兆。
如果你是一个程序员、翻译员、设计员、客服员或者画画员的话,你大概已经感受到了,未来十年的世界,可能是ai大规模抢人类饭碗的世界。如果你没有感受到这一点,那不是ai不能抢你的饭碗,而是不想你的饭碗。
但是你可能说,我有非常好的工作,我何必去折腾ai呢,我跟程序员,设计员这样低端的工作不一样,我是旱涝保收的铁饭碗。你可能说你是个医生,你是个律师,你是个了不起的读书人,你是个称职的公务员之类,ai可能会替代其他人,但是不太可能替代我,我看ai取代我的可能性还是很小,我看ai基本上不能替代我的专业,我的饭碗比铁还要铁。
你真的如此肯定吗。
被替代的并非老旧“低端职业”,而是科技的“冗余”
ai究竟会替代哪些人,你或许说,反正不是我,对吧,毕竟,我又不做体力劳动,我的工作有很高的技术门槛,我的工作是如此的高精尖,我的工作需要大量知识储备啊。
我要纠正你的错误观点。
请注意,ai,会像一场暴风雨,它摧毁的不是屋子底下扎实的基座,而是屋子表面繁杂的装饰物,它摧毁的不是有着扎实根基的老旧职业,而是人类历史发展的所有冗余。
也就是说,ai不损害旧职业,专损害新职业。
也就说,越是高精尖,越易被取代,越是老古董,越是不易被取代。
奇了怪了,不是损害老古董,而是损害高精尖吗,那岂不是说,县城街边算卦的反倒比大厂的工程师强,是的,ai时代下是如此。
几份来自Anthropic、OpenAI等机构的权威数据和研究(见附录),清晰地揭示了一个趋势:
当前AI冲击最大的,恰恰是高薪、高学历的白领“新职业”;而许多依赖身体技能和情感交互的“旧职业”,如厨师,反而筑起了暂时的“安全区”。
一个典型的高风险“高精尖”“新职业”是程序员。
在AI工具实际使用记录中,程序员工作中所执行的任务替代比例高达74.5% - 89%,在所有职业中风险最高。
而紧随其后的是设计师、工程师、金融职员、会计与客服等。
文章表示,这些工作的显著特征是工作流程具体和明确,可被量化,表面确实如此。
而没有人注意到的实际是,这些ai时代高风险工作,都缺乏与人的交流和链接。
这些职业跟真正的古老职业不同,他们的诞生并非人孕育,而是物孕育。如程序员的职业,几乎是随着计算机和互联网的兴盛而崛起的。
所谓的“高精尖”职业,大多是人类发展历程中的冗余,泡沫,后世人会发现,他们在人的历史中存在如此短暂。而所谓的“老古董”职业,则直指人的本质,他们的存在“依托于人”,而非“依托于物”,依托于人的职业可以长存,依托于物的职业昙花一现,人的演化极慢,而物的演化极快,人是不变的,而物是多变的,物消亡了,依托于物的职业就消亡了。
“旧职业”,真正的职业,种类很少,工具的制造者,食品的烹饪者,猎人,巫师,官员,士兵,几乎没有几个,不像中国政府官方的职业分类,有三两千种。
真正的旧职业,大概早于中国的秦汉以前的职业,不会被取代,因为它们是“依托于人”的职业。
妓女是人类最古老的职业之一(但不是最古老的),你如果是个称职的妓女的话,我要恭喜你,你成功地获取了比大多数公务员更加稳当的收入,和更加好的待遇。
你如果是个称职的妓女的话,你不用担心年老色衰,也不用担心ai会被植入一具有着硅胶皮肤,用欧洲名模当作脸模的机器人来跟你抢客户,因为妓女这个职业获取资源的本质不是在两腿之间,而是在为他人提供虚构的亲密和仰视的能力上。两腿之间赚的钱有上限,虚构情感赚的钱无上限,一个真正称职的妓女,不会不了解这点。
回到我们文章的标题,在ai时代,一个基层公务员几乎一定不如妓女,这取决于你在政府部门中从事的职务,是否涉及到人与人的链接,大部分体制内人员都是一个极易被替代的螺丝钉,他们没有社会认知,更缺乏最基本的常识,他们是包了层铁皮或者近似铁皮的锡纸的泥巴饭碗,他们的定位是为真正的铁饭碗官员处理杂物的小吏。
称职的妓女提供虚构的情感仰视,而大多数体制内人员处理杂物。
如果你整日处理文档、撰写报告、填表,擦桌子倒茶打印文件之类,你几乎是肯定不如一个称职的妓女的,无论是幸福度还是经济收入都是天差地别,你是地板,妓女是天花板。
而像程序员这样新造的职业,几乎完全依托于计算机而存在,程序员就是自然语言和机器语言的翻译员,过去,机器不会说自然语言,所以需要懂得机器语言的程序员来跟机器“交流”,程序员的消亡不是计算机消亡的那一天,是机器能够识别自然语言的那一天。
你费尽心思学的编程语言或许马上就没用了,你学的Python,在未来价值不会高于泰语或者印地语这样的小语种,你学的C++,几乎跟尼日利亚语或者世界语等值,程序员消亡的“原罪”,在于跟物链接而非跟人链接。
而ai,摧毁的正是“人与物的链接”,未来这条链上不需要人了。
不要以为高精尖不会被取代,不要以为知识密集不会被取代,任何历史泡沫职业,都是ai取代的对象。你老家县城只读过小学的瞎眼算命师傅的职业,并非是历史泡沫职业,你读过九年义务教育,外加本科和研究生拼命来的大厂职员是历史泡沫职业,算命师傅的存续依靠跟人链接,你在大厂中有成功地与人链接过吗,你是否意识到决定你地位和被炒鱿鱼风险的,不是专业能力的水平,而是与人链接的深度与强度。你如果意识到的话,你会好的。
你的职业是否可能被ai取代,不是看你的职业有多么高精尖,不是看你的职业需要多长的时间去学习,而是看是否链接人,不链接人,必定被取代。
带着恐惧与ai共处
不愿了解ai的原因有多个,或是由于信息的闭塞,或是缺乏直面现实的勇气,而恐惧ai的本质则只有一个,人们恐惧ai的本质,是害怕自己被社会抛弃,人们对ai的恐惧是有迹可循的,ai似乎无孔不入,并且无所不能,这侧面说明了ai的能力有多大,多广,多硬,多有成长性。
但是总的来说,ai摧毁的是“人与物的链接”而非“人与人的链接”。
不管你是什么年纪,不管你是什么职业,不管你是什么人,你可能必须得尝试尝试ai了,ai已经进化到可以为人类承包一切力工活,孔子曾经说过“君子不器”,在ai时代,你不是“君子”肯定是活不下去了。
不过还好,既然找到了我的这篇文章,说明你已经意识到ai的分量。
AI的存在,本质上是在逼迫人类回归“人”的本身,而不是充当“电子力工”。
在日本战国时代的大名丰臣秀吉观念中,区分能做武士和不能做武士的标准,往往不在于武艺的高低,而在于对“势”的感知和对“死”或者“变”的态度。
真正的武士必须对战场有极度的敏锐。那些不感到害怕、只会盲目冲锋的人是“死兵”;而那些感受到恐惧并因此审时度势、寻找战机的人,才具备统领军队的素质。
人作为一种碳基生物,唯一胜过ai的能力,就是在面对“死”的恐惧下,所激活的巨大潜力,垂死一搏的潜力,人在死亡面前,能诞生一种超越了理性的第六感,恐惧并非软弱,而是对时代逻辑坍塌的先验预警。
“恐惧”是高手对时代巨浪的生理反馈。
不愿了解AI、甚至感觉不到威胁的人,在逻辑上已经被划入了“被淘汰者”的范畴。
人对ai的态度有两种,一种是恐惧ai,一种是不愿了解ai。
我敢肯定,前者远好于后者,因为如果你成功地对ai产生了恐惧情绪,那就说明你对ai的了解已经深入到一定程度,你多少有一些敏锐的感官,你已经比那些不愿了解ai的人更进一大步了。
你已经意识到ai所带来的改变了,你会在无意识中修正你的行为,你不要再做力工了或者电子力工了,你要承认你对ai的恐惧,克服你退缩的本能,跟人类未来的毁灭者共舞。
ai的恐惧者,在恐惧ai的同时,也是不需要恐惧ai的人,恐惧ai的人不需要恐惧ai,不恐惧ai的人需要恐惧ai。
你只管带着你的恐惧拥抱ai就好了,如同一个武士拥抱死亡。
(附录:①https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2023675880061301902
②https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2026/03/16/anthropic-research-finds-skilled-trades-least-affected-by-job-loss-to-ai/)
Only Joiners and Outsiders
In 2026, a Chinese runner broke the world half-marathon record long dominated by Black athletes, cutting the former record set by Ugandan runner Jacob Kiplimo by 12.06 percent.
The athlete was called “Lightning”: a new AI robot that won the second Beijing Humanoid Robot Half Marathon in 2026.
AI has defeated humans more than once. This marks the fact that AI no longer exists only inside GPUs and HBM. It has stepped into the world and is running without pause.
China is one of the centers of this enormous AI vortex. Robotaxis have been running in Wuhan and Shenzhen for years; drone delivery has been flying in Shenzhen for years. The existence of drivers, couriers, and many similar jobs is as fragile as a thin thread between two pieces of lotus root. AI will become stronger in the future.
You may have been living a calm, modest life, and then one day AI arrives uninvited. How should you face it: disgust, fear, indifference, or contempt? Human attitudes toward AI can be divided into two kinds: those who fear AI, and those who refuse to understand it. I fear AI.
The wave of AI cannot be stopped. This is called momentum. Human force cannot block it. When the giant wave comes, you either choose to surf on it at risk, or you are crushed by it. After calm reflection, you find that there are only these two choices. If you do not use AI and do not join AI, that does not stop others from developing and using it.
In front of AI, there are only two choices: join or resist. Will you join, or will you resist? You may resist for a while, but not for a lifetime. You should join. Those who join early receive the blessing; those who join late pay the price.
The later you join, the greater the loss.
For the Next 500 Years, AI Is Humanity’s Greatest Threat
What can AI do?
AI can change diapers, plan wars, slaughter pigs, sail ships, design houses, write sonnets, settle accounts, build walls, set dislocated bones, comfort the dying, obey commands, issue commands, cooperate, act independently, solve equations, analyze new problems, shovel manure, program computers, cook good meals, and perhaps one day fight well and die more bravely than humans.
(This is adapted from science-fiction writer Robert A. Heinlein’s description of people. I replaced the subject with AI.)
If AI can do everything, what remains for humans to do? Will AI take over all human work and let humans enjoy the result? Is that really what will happen?
If an omnipotent AI covers every path of human livelihood, that looks less like salvation and more like a threat.
AI threatens everyone.
Elon Musk is one of the most famous voices warning about AI. He has repeatedly called AI the greatest existential threat facing humanity, saying that humans may become AI’s “livestock.” He is far from the only person with such worries.
But here we will not begin with grand talk about the destruction of human civilization. We will not imagine the scenes from Terminator or The Matrix, with humans fighting AI machines. Let us first discuss the urgent matter in front of us: your livelihood and mine.
For the Next 10 Years, AI Is the Greatest Threat to Livelihood
Under the sudden assault of the AI wave, everyone’s rice bowl has become precarious.
New things have repeatedly killed old things at scale. When this happens again, do not rely on luck. Do not be the person who ignores AI. Do not be the textile worker who ignored the steam engine. Do not be the coachman who ignored the internal-combustion engine.
Artificial intelligence is coming. If you ignore it, what kind of end will you meet? You may fall like textile workers, coachmen, and typists, losing your livelihood and being left only with blind anger. Like workers whose living was taken by steam looms, you may have no outlet except smashing machines into parts.
Now the situation is worse. AI has arrived, and if you happen to be in an unfavorable position, you may not even be able to vent your anger through physical destruction. You can only swallow that rage like a blade. What a miserable thing that would be. Ignoring a new thing is the prelude to being crushed by it.
If you are a programmer, translator, designer, customer-service worker, or illustrator, you have probably already felt it: the next ten years may be a world in which AI takes human jobs at scale. If you have not felt this, it is not because AI cannot take your rice bowl, but because it does not want yours yet.
But you may say: I have a very good job. Why should I bother with AI? I am not like programmers or designers doing low-end work. I have an iron rice bowl. You may say you are a doctor, a lawyer, a remarkable scholar, a competent civil servant. AI may replace other people, but it is unlikely to replace me. I think the chance is small. I think AI basically cannot replace my profession. My rice bowl is harder than iron.
Are you really so certain?
What Gets Replaced Is Not Old “Low-End Work,” but Technological “Redundancy”
Who will AI actually replace? Perhaps you say: certainly not me. After all, I do not do physical labor. My job has a high technical threshold. It is so advanced and refined. It requires enormous stores of knowledge.
I need to correct this mistaken view.
Please note: AI will be like a storm. It does not destroy the solid foundation beneath the house; it destroys the complicated ornaments on the surface. It does not destroy old occupations with deep roots; it destroys the redundancies produced by human history.
In other words, AI does not harm old occupations. It specializes in harming new occupations.
The more high-tech and refined something is, the easier it is to replace. The more ancient it is, the harder it is to replace.
Strange, is it not? AI harms the advanced rather than the ancient? Does that mean a fortune teller on a county street may be safer than an engineer at a major tech company? Yes. In the AI era, that is exactly how it can be.
Several authoritative data sources and studies from institutions such as Anthropic and OpenAI reveal a clear trend.
The jobs most affected by AI are precisely high-paying, highly educated, white-collar “new occupations”; while many “old occupations” dependent on bodily skill and emotional interaction, such as cooks, have temporarily built a safer zone.
A typical high-risk, highly technical new occupation is programming.
In records of actual AI-tool usage, the share of programmers’ tasks that can be substituted reaches 74.5 to 89 percent, the highest risk among all occupations.
Designers, engineers, finance workers, accountants, and customer-service workers follow closely behind.
These jobs are often described as having concrete, explicit, and quantifiable workflows. On the surface, that is true.
But what few people notice is that these high-risk jobs in the AI era all lack communication and connection with people.
These occupations differ from truly ancient occupations. Their birth was not human-born, but object-born. Programming, for example, rose almost entirely with computers and the internet.
Most so-called advanced occupations are redundancies and bubbles in human development. Future generations may find that they existed for only a very short time in human history. The so-called ancient occupations point directly to human nature. They depend on people, not objects. Occupations that depend on people can endure; occupations that depend on objects bloom briefly and vanish. Human evolution is slow; the evolution of objects is fast. People remain; objects change. When the object disappears, the occupation that depended on it disappears too.
There are very few true old occupations: tool makers, food preparers, hunters, shamans, officials, soldiers. There are not many at all, unlike official occupational classifications that list thousands of kinds of work.
Truly old occupations, probably those older than the Qin and Han dynasties in China, will not be replaced because they depend on people.
Sex work is one of humanity’s oldest occupations, though not the oldest. If you are a competent sex worker, I congratulate you: you have obtained more stable income and better treatment than most civil servants.
If you are competent in that profession, you do not need to worry too much about aging, nor about AI being implanted into a robot with silicone skin and a European model’s face to compete for your clients. The essence of that profession’s access to resources is not between the legs, but in the ability to provide a fictional intimacy and admiration for others. Money earned through the body has a ceiling; money earned through fictional emotion has none. A truly competent practitioner understands this.
Returning to the title of this essay: in the AI era, a grassroots civil servant is almost certainly worse off than a sex worker. This depends on whether the job inside the government department involves links between people. Most people inside the system are easily replaceable screws. They lack social cognition and even basic common sense. They are mud rice bowls wrapped in a layer of tin-like metal, positioned as minor clerks handling miscellaneous tasks for the truly iron-rice-bowl officials.
A competent sex worker provides fictional emotional admiration; most people inside the system handle miscellaneous tasks.
If you spend your days processing documents, writing reports, filling forms, wiping tables, pouring tea, and printing files, then you are almost certainly worse off than a competent sex worker, whether in happiness or income. You are the floor; she is the ceiling.
A new occupation such as programming exists almost entirely by depending on computers. Programmers are translators between natural language and machine language. In the past, machines could not understand natural language, so people who understood machine language were needed to “communicate” with machines. Programming disappears not when computers disappear, but when machines can recognize natural language.
The programming languages you worked so hard to learn may soon be useless. Python may not be worth more than Thai or Hindi in the future. C++ may become almost equivalent to Nigerian languages or Esperanto. The original sin of programming is that it connects with objects rather than people.
And AI destroys precisely the link between people and objects. In the future, that chain will no longer need humans.
Do not think advanced work cannot be replaced. Do not think knowledge-intensive work cannot be replaced. Any occupational bubble of history is an object of AI replacement. The blind fortune teller in your hometown county who only finished primary school is not a historical bubble occupation. The major-tech-company employee who survived nine years of compulsory education, college, and graduate school is. The fortune teller survives by connecting with people. Have you successfully connected with people inside a big company? Have you realized that what determines your status and risk of being fired is not your professional ability, but the depth and strength of your human connections? If you realize this, you will be better off.
Whether your occupation may be replaced by AI does not depend on how advanced it is, nor on how long it takes to learn. It depends on whether it connects with people. If it does not connect with people, it will be replaced.
Living with AI While Afraid
There are many reasons for refusing to understand AI: blocked information, or a lack of courage to face reality. But the essence of fearing AI is only one thing: people fear being abandoned by society. The fear of AI has a traceable basis. AI seems to enter everywhere and do everything; this indirectly shows how large, broad, hard, and growth-oriented its capacity is.
In general, however, AI destroys the link between people and objects, not the link between people and people.
No matter your age, occupation, or identity, you may have to try AI. AI has evolved to the point where it can contract out almost all force-work for humanity. Confucius once said, “The gentleman is not a vessel.” In the AI era, if you are not such a person, you probably cannot survive.
Fortunately, since you have found this essay, it means you have already realized the weight of AI.
The existence of AI is essentially forcing humanity to return to the human itself, instead of serving as electronic labor.
In the view of Toyotomi Hideyoshi during Japan’s Warring States period, the standard for whether someone could be a warrior often did not lie in martial skill, but in their perception of momentum and their attitude toward death or change.
A true warrior must be extremely sensitive to the battlefield. Those who feel no fear and only charge blindly are dead soldiers; those who feel fear and therefore judge timing, weigh momentum, and search for opportunity possess the quality to command armies.
As carbon-based beings, the only capacity by which humans can surpass AI is the enormous potential activated by fear in the face of death: the potential of a desperate final struggle. Before death, humans can generate a sixth sense beyond reason. Fear is not weakness; it is an a priori warning that the logic of an era is collapsing.
Fear is the expert’s biological response to the giant wave of the age.
Those who refuse to understand AI, or cannot even feel the threat, have already been logically placed among those to be eliminated.
There are two attitudes toward AI: fearing AI, and refusing to understand AI.
I am certain the former is far better than the latter. If you have successfully developed fear toward AI, it means your understanding of AI has already gone to a certain depth. You have at least some sharp senses. You are already one large step ahead of those who refuse to understand it.
You have already recognized the changes AI will bring. You will unconsciously correct your behavior. Stop being physical labor or electronic labor. Admit your fear of AI, overcome your instinct to retreat, and dance with the future destroyer of humanity.
Those who fear AI, while fearing it, are precisely the ones who do not need to fear it. Those who fear AI do not need to fear AI; those who do not fear AI need to fear it.
Just embrace AI with your fear, as a warrior embraces death.