00:00:00

— 01 / Statement

语言是思想的边界Language is the border of thought.

这里是米思明的个人网页。This is the personal website of Mi Siming.

一个玩AI的算命师傅。A fortune teller who plays with AI.

— 02 / Writing Index

文章分类索引Writing Categories

文章分为 AI、命理、杂谈三类。下方索引直达全文。Essays are arranged under AI, Bazi, and Notes. Each item links to the full text below.

01 / AI · AI

为什么说在ai时代,考公考编不如下海?Why Civil-Service Exams May Not Be the Safer Bet in the AI Era

关于 AI 对职业、饭碗,以及“人与物链接”的冲击。On AI, work, livelihood, and the collapse of human-object links.

更新时间:2026.05.06Updated: 2026.05.06

只有“加入者”和“出局者”

2026年,一名中国选手,刷新了黑人统治的世界半程马拉松的世界记录,把前任世界半程马拉松世界记录的创造者,乌干达选手雅各布·基普利的记录缩短了12.06%。

这位运动员的名字叫做“闪电”,最新的ai机器人,在2026年第二届北京人形机器人半程马拉松中夺冠。

ai已经不止一次击败了人类,这标志着,ai已经不再只存在于GPU和HBM里了,它已跨入天地之间,毫不停歇地奔跑。

中国是ai这一巨大漩涡的中心之一,自动驾驶出租车已经在武汉和深圳跑了两三年了,无人机空运外卖已经在深圳飞了两三年了,司机、外卖员等诸多工作的存在,比两段短藕间的细丝更脆弱,ai会在未来变得更强。

你本过着平静的小确幸的生活,忽有一天,ai不请自来,你该以何种态度面对,是厌恶还是恐惧,是无视还是蔑视,你对ai的态度,基本可分为两种,一种是恐惧ai,一种是不愿了解ai。我,恐惧ai。

ai的浪潮是不可阻挡的,这叫做“势”,人力无办法阻拦,巨浪拍过来的时候,你要么选择冒险在浪头上冲浪,要么选择被浪头拍死,你冷静思考后发现,你只有这两种选择,你不用ai,你不加入ai,不影响别的人继续开发,继续用。

在ai面前,你只有加入或对抗两种选择,你是要加入呢,还是对抗呢。你可能对抗一时,不能对抗一世,你还是加入吧,先加入的有福报,后加入的要吃亏。

加入得越晚,吃的亏越大。

未来500年,ai是人类本身最大的威胁

ai能干些什么呢?

ai能够换尿布,策划战争,杀猪,开船,设计房子,写十四行诗,结算账户,砌墙,接脱臼的骨头,安慰濒死的人,服从命令,发布命令,携手合作,独立行动,解数学方程,分析新问题,铲粪,电脑编程,做出可口的饭,也许未来会善打架,并比人类更勇敢地死去。

(科幻作者Robert A.Heinlein的描写人的文字,我把主语替换成了ai)

ai无所不能,那还要人干什么,ai会把所有人的活路都干了,然后人类坐享其成,是这样的吗?

如果无所不能的ai把人类所有的活路都包揽,相比于拯救,那更像是一种威胁。

ai威胁着所有人。

埃隆·马斯克是 AI 威胁论最著名的发声者之一。他曾多次称 AI 为人类面临的“最大生存威胁”,他称人类可能会沦为ai的“家畜”,并且,有这样担忧的不止他一人。

不过,这里我们先不谈那些远大的“摧毁人类文明”云云,先不去想象《终结者》或《黑客帝国》电影里人类与ai机器人大战的戏码,我们先谈谈当下要紧的事情,你和我饭碗的问题。

未来10年,ai是人类饭碗最大的威胁

在ai浪潮的突袭下,所有人的饭碗都岌岌可危了。

新事物大规模杀死旧事物,这种事情过去多次发生,当它再次发生的时候,请不要抱有侥幸。请别做无视ai的人,请不要做无视蒸汽机的织布工人,请不要做无视内燃机的马车夫。

人工智能就要来了,如果你无视它,你会沦落到什么样的下场,你会沦落到织布工人、马车夫、打字员一样的下场,失去了饭碗,抱有无明的愤怒,只能像是被蒸汽织布机抢走生计的织布工人一样,除了把机器砸成零件之外,别无其它办法发泄。

而现在情况更糟糕,ai来了,如果你不幸地处于不利的位置,你甚至连用物理破坏来发泄情绪都做不到,你只有像咽下刀片一样,把愤怒活生生咽下去,那该是多么悲惨啊。无视新事物,是被它碾碎的前兆。

如果你是一个程序员、翻译员、设计员、客服员或者画画员的话,你大概已经感受到了,未来十年的世界,可能是ai大规模抢人类饭碗的世界。如果你没有感受到这一点,那不是ai不能抢你的饭碗,而是不想你的饭碗。

但是你可能说,我有非常好的工作,我何必去折腾ai呢,我跟程序员,设计员这样低端的工作不一样,我是旱涝保收的铁饭碗。你可能说你是个医生,你是个律师,你是个了不起的读书人,你是个称职的公务员之类,ai可能会替代其他人,但是不太可能替代我,我看ai取代我的可能性还是很小,我看ai基本上不能替代我的专业,我的饭碗比铁还要铁。

你真的如此肯定吗。

被替代的并非老旧“低端职业”,而是科技的“冗余”

ai究竟会替代哪些人,你或许说,反正不是我,对吧,毕竟,我又不做体力劳动,我的工作有很高的技术门槛,我的工作是如此的高精尖,我的工作需要大量知识储备啊。

我要纠正你的错误观点。

请注意,ai,会像一场暴风雨,它摧毁的不是屋子底下扎实的基座,而是屋子表面繁杂的装饰物,它摧毁的不是有着扎实根基的老旧职业,而是人类历史发展的所有冗余。

也就是说,ai不损害旧职业,专损害新职业。

也就说,越是高精尖,越易被取代,越是老古董,越是不易被取代。

奇了怪了,不是损害老古董,而是损害高精尖吗,那岂不是说,县城街边算卦的反倒比大厂的工程师强,是的,ai时代下是如此。

几份来自Anthropic、OpenAI等机构的权威数据和研究(见附录),清晰地揭示了一个趋势:

当前AI冲击最大的,恰恰是高薪、高学历的白领“新职业”;而许多依赖身体技能和情感交互的“旧职业”,如厨师,反而筑起了暂时的“安全区”。

一个典型的高风险“高精尖”“新职业”是程序员。

在AI工具实际使用记录中,程序员工作中所执行的任务替代比例高达74.5% - 89%,在所有职业中风险最高。

而紧随其后的是设计师、工程师、金融职员、会计与客服等。

文章表示,这些工作的显著特征是工作流程具体和明确,可被量化,表面确实如此。

而没有人注意到的实际是,这些ai时代高风险工作,都缺乏与人的交流和链接。

这些职业跟真正的古老职业不同,他们的诞生并非人孕育,而是物孕育。如程序员的职业,几乎是随着计算机和互联网的兴盛而崛起的。

所谓的“高精尖”职业,大多是人类发展历程中的冗余,泡沫,后世人会发现,他们在人的历史中存在如此短暂。而所谓的“老古董”职业,则直指人的本质,他们的存在“依托于人”,而非“依托于物”,依托于人的职业可以长存,依托于物的职业昙花一现,人的演化极慢,而物的演化极快,人是不变的,而物是多变的,物消亡了,依托于物的职业就消亡了。

“旧职业”,真正的职业,种类很少,工具的制造者,食品的烹饪者,猎人,巫师,官员,士兵,几乎没有几个,不像中国政府官方的职业分类,有三两千种。

真正的旧职业,大概早于中国的秦汉以前的职业,不会被取代,因为它们是“依托于人”的职业。

妓女是人类最古老的职业之一(但不是最古老的),你如果是个称职的妓女的话,我要恭喜你,你成功地获取了比大多数公务员更加稳当的收入,和更加好的待遇。

你如果是个称职的妓女的话,你不用担心年老色衰,也不用担心ai会被植入一具有着硅胶皮肤,用欧洲名模当作脸模的机器人来跟你抢客户,因为妓女这个职业获取资源的本质不是在两腿之间,而是在为他人提供虚构的亲密和仰视的能力上。两腿之间赚的钱有上限,虚构情感赚的钱无上限,一个真正称职的妓女,不会不了解这点。

回到我们文章的标题,在ai时代,一个基层公务员几乎一定不如妓女,这取决于你在政府部门中从事的职务,是否涉及到人与人的链接,大部分体制内人员都是一个极易被替代的螺丝钉,他们没有社会认知,更缺乏最基本的常识,他们是包了层铁皮或者近似铁皮的锡纸的泥巴饭碗,他们的定位是为真正的铁饭碗官员处理杂物的小吏。

称职的妓女提供虚构的情感仰视,而大多数体制内人员处理杂物。

如果你整日处理文档、撰写报告、填表,擦桌子倒茶打印文件之类,你几乎是肯定不如一个称职的妓女的,无论是幸福度还是经济收入都是天差地别,你是地板,妓女是天花板。

而像程序员这样新造的职业,几乎完全依托于计算机而存在,程序员就是自然语言和机器语言的翻译员,过去,机器不会说自然语言,所以需要懂得机器语言的程序员来跟机器“交流”,程序员的消亡不是计算机消亡的那一天,是机器能够识别自然语言的那一天。

你费尽心思学的编程语言或许马上就没用了,你学的Python,在未来价值不会高于泰语或者印地语这样的小语种,你学的C++,几乎跟尼日利亚语或者世界语等值,程序员消亡的“原罪”,在于跟物链接而非跟人链接。

而ai,摧毁的正是“人与物的链接”,未来这条链上不需要人了。

不要以为高精尖不会被取代,不要以为知识密集不会被取代,任何历史泡沫职业,都是ai取代的对象。你老家县城只读过小学的瞎眼算命师傅的职业,并非是历史泡沫职业,你读过九年义务教育,外加本科和研究生拼命来的大厂职员是历史泡沫职业,算命师傅的存续依靠跟人链接,你在大厂中有成功地与人链接过吗,你是否意识到决定你地位和被炒鱿鱼风险的,不是专业能力的水平,而是与人链接的深度与强度。你如果意识到的话,你会好的。

你的职业是否可能被ai取代,不是看你的职业有多么高精尖,不是看你的职业需要多长的时间去学习,而是看是否链接人,不链接人,必定被取代。

带着恐惧与ai共处

不愿了解ai的原因有多个,或是由于信息的闭塞,或是缺乏直面现实的勇气,而恐惧ai的本质则只有一个,人们恐惧ai的本质,是害怕自己被社会抛弃,人们对ai的恐惧是有迹可循的,ai似乎无孔不入,并且无所不能,这侧面说明了ai的能力有多大,多广,多硬,多有成长性。

但是总的来说,ai摧毁的是“人与物的链接”而非“人与人的链接”。

不管你是什么年纪,不管你是什么职业,不管你是什么人,你可能必须得尝试尝试ai了,ai已经进化到可以为人类承包一切力工活,孔子曾经说过“君子不器”,在ai时代,你不是“君子”肯定是活不下去了。

不过还好,既然找到了我的这篇文章,说明你已经意识到ai的分量。

AI的存在,本质上是在逼迫人类回归“人”的本身,而不是充当“电子力工”。

在日本战国时代的大名丰臣秀吉观念中,区分能做武士和不能做武士的标准,往往不在于武艺的高低,而在于对“势”的感知和对“死”或者“变”的态度。

真正的武士必须对战场有极度的敏锐。那些不感到害怕、只会盲目冲锋的人是“死兵”;而那些感受到恐惧并因此审时度势、寻找战机的人,才具备统领军队的素质。

人作为一种碳基生物,唯一胜过ai的能力,就是在面对“死”的恐惧下,所激活的巨大潜力,垂死一搏的潜力,人在死亡面前,能诞生一种超越了理性的第六感,恐惧并非软弱,而是对时代逻辑坍塌的先验预警。

“恐惧”是高手对时代巨浪的生理反馈。

不愿了解AI、甚至感觉不到威胁的人,在逻辑上已经被划入了“被淘汰者”的范畴。

人对ai的态度有两种,一种是恐惧ai,一种是不愿了解ai。

我敢肯定,前者远好于后者,因为如果你成功地对ai产生了恐惧情绪,那就说明你对ai的了解已经深入到一定程度,你多少有一些敏锐的感官,你已经比那些不愿了解ai的人更进一大步了。

你已经意识到ai所带来的改变了,你会在无意识中修正你的行为,你不要再做力工了或者电子力工了,你要承认你对ai的恐惧,克服你退缩的本能,跟人类未来的毁灭者共舞。

ai的恐惧者,在恐惧ai的同时,也是不需要恐惧ai的人,恐惧ai的人不需要恐惧ai,不恐惧ai的人需要恐惧ai。

你只管带着你的恐惧拥抱ai就好了,如同一个武士拥抱死亡。

(附录:①https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2023675880061301902

②https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/2026/03/16/anthropic-research-finds-skilled-trades-least-affected-by-job-loss-to-ai/)

Only Joiners and Outsiders

In 2026, a Chinese runner broke the world half-marathon record long dominated by Black athletes, cutting the former record set by Ugandan runner Jacob Kiplimo by 12.06 percent.

The athlete was called “Lightning”: a new AI robot that won the second Beijing Humanoid Robot Half Marathon in 2026.

AI has defeated humans more than once. This marks the fact that AI no longer exists only inside GPUs and HBM. It has stepped into the world and is running without pause.

China is one of the centers of this enormous AI vortex. Robotaxis have been running in Wuhan and Shenzhen for years; drone delivery has been flying in Shenzhen for years. The existence of drivers, couriers, and many similar jobs is as fragile as a thin thread between two pieces of lotus root. AI will become stronger in the future.

You may have been living a calm, modest life, and then one day AI arrives uninvited. How should you face it: disgust, fear, indifference, or contempt? Human attitudes toward AI can be divided into two kinds: those who fear AI, and those who refuse to understand it. I fear AI.

The wave of AI cannot be stopped. This is called momentum. Human force cannot block it. When the giant wave comes, you either choose to surf on it at risk, or you are crushed by it. After calm reflection, you find that there are only these two choices. If you do not use AI and do not join AI, that does not stop others from developing and using it.

In front of AI, there are only two choices: join or resist. Will you join, or will you resist? You may resist for a while, but not for a lifetime. You should join. Those who join early receive the blessing; those who join late pay the price.

The later you join, the greater the loss.

For the Next 500 Years, AI Is Humanity’s Greatest Threat

What can AI do?

AI can change diapers, plan wars, slaughter pigs, sail ships, design houses, write sonnets, settle accounts, build walls, set dislocated bones, comfort the dying, obey commands, issue commands, cooperate, act independently, solve equations, analyze new problems, shovel manure, program computers, cook good meals, and perhaps one day fight well and die more bravely than humans.

(This is adapted from science-fiction writer Robert A. Heinlein’s description of people. I replaced the subject with AI.)

If AI can do everything, what remains for humans to do? Will AI take over all human work and let humans enjoy the result? Is that really what will happen?

If an omnipotent AI covers every path of human livelihood, that looks less like salvation and more like a threat.

AI threatens everyone.

Elon Musk is one of the most famous voices warning about AI. He has repeatedly called AI the greatest existential threat facing humanity, saying that humans may become AI’s “livestock.” He is far from the only person with such worries.

But here we will not begin with grand talk about the destruction of human civilization. We will not imagine the scenes from Terminator or The Matrix, with humans fighting AI machines. Let us first discuss the urgent matter in front of us: your livelihood and mine.

For the Next 10 Years, AI Is the Greatest Threat to Livelihood

Under the sudden assault of the AI wave, everyone’s rice bowl has become precarious.

New things have repeatedly killed old things at scale. When this happens again, do not rely on luck. Do not be the person who ignores AI. Do not be the textile worker who ignored the steam engine. Do not be the coachman who ignored the internal-combustion engine.

Artificial intelligence is coming. If you ignore it, what kind of end will you meet? You may fall like textile workers, coachmen, and typists, losing your livelihood and being left only with blind anger. Like workers whose living was taken by steam looms, you may have no outlet except smashing machines into parts.

Now the situation is worse. AI has arrived, and if you happen to be in an unfavorable position, you may not even be able to vent your anger through physical destruction. You can only swallow that rage like a blade. What a miserable thing that would be. Ignoring a new thing is the prelude to being crushed by it.

If you are a programmer, translator, designer, customer-service worker, or illustrator, you have probably already felt it: the next ten years may be a world in which AI takes human jobs at scale. If you have not felt this, it is not because AI cannot take your rice bowl, but because it does not want yours yet.

But you may say: I have a very good job. Why should I bother with AI? I am not like programmers or designers doing low-end work. I have an iron rice bowl. You may say you are a doctor, a lawyer, a remarkable scholar, a competent civil servant. AI may replace other people, but it is unlikely to replace me. I think the chance is small. I think AI basically cannot replace my profession. My rice bowl is harder than iron.

Are you really so certain?

What Gets Replaced Is Not Old “Low-End Work,” but Technological “Redundancy”

Who will AI actually replace? Perhaps you say: certainly not me. After all, I do not do physical labor. My job has a high technical threshold. It is so advanced and refined. It requires enormous stores of knowledge.

I need to correct this mistaken view.

Please note: AI will be like a storm. It does not destroy the solid foundation beneath the house; it destroys the complicated ornaments on the surface. It does not destroy old occupations with deep roots; it destroys the redundancies produced by human history.

In other words, AI does not harm old occupations. It specializes in harming new occupations.

The more high-tech and refined something is, the easier it is to replace. The more ancient it is, the harder it is to replace.

Strange, is it not? AI harms the advanced rather than the ancient? Does that mean a fortune teller on a county street may be safer than an engineer at a major tech company? Yes. In the AI era, that is exactly how it can be.

Several authoritative data sources and studies from institutions such as Anthropic and OpenAI reveal a clear trend.

The jobs most affected by AI are precisely high-paying, highly educated, white-collar “new occupations”; while many “old occupations” dependent on bodily skill and emotional interaction, such as cooks, have temporarily built a safer zone.

A typical high-risk, highly technical new occupation is programming.

In records of actual AI-tool usage, the share of programmers’ tasks that can be substituted reaches 74.5 to 89 percent, the highest risk among all occupations.

Designers, engineers, finance workers, accountants, and customer-service workers follow closely behind.

These jobs are often described as having concrete, explicit, and quantifiable workflows. On the surface, that is true.

But what few people notice is that these high-risk jobs in the AI era all lack communication and connection with people.

These occupations differ from truly ancient occupations. Their birth was not human-born, but object-born. Programming, for example, rose almost entirely with computers and the internet.

Most so-called advanced occupations are redundancies and bubbles in human development. Future generations may find that they existed for only a very short time in human history. The so-called ancient occupations point directly to human nature. They depend on people, not objects. Occupations that depend on people can endure; occupations that depend on objects bloom briefly and vanish. Human evolution is slow; the evolution of objects is fast. People remain; objects change. When the object disappears, the occupation that depended on it disappears too.

There are very few true old occupations: tool makers, food preparers, hunters, shamans, officials, soldiers. There are not many at all, unlike official occupational classifications that list thousands of kinds of work.

Truly old occupations, probably those older than the Qin and Han dynasties in China, will not be replaced because they depend on people.

Sex work is one of humanity’s oldest occupations, though not the oldest. If you are a competent sex worker, I congratulate you: you have obtained more stable income and better treatment than most civil servants.

If you are competent in that profession, you do not need to worry too much about aging, nor about AI being implanted into a robot with silicone skin and a European model’s face to compete for your clients. The essence of that profession’s access to resources is not between the legs, but in the ability to provide a fictional intimacy and admiration for others. Money earned through the body has a ceiling; money earned through fictional emotion has none. A truly competent practitioner understands this.

Returning to the title of this essay: in the AI era, a grassroots civil servant is almost certainly worse off than a sex worker. This depends on whether the job inside the government department involves links between people. Most people inside the system are easily replaceable screws. They lack social cognition and even basic common sense. They are mud rice bowls wrapped in a layer of tin-like metal, positioned as minor clerks handling miscellaneous tasks for the truly iron-rice-bowl officials.

A competent sex worker provides fictional emotional admiration; most people inside the system handle miscellaneous tasks.

If you spend your days processing documents, writing reports, filling forms, wiping tables, pouring tea, and printing files, then you are almost certainly worse off than a competent sex worker, whether in happiness or income. You are the floor; she is the ceiling.

A new occupation such as programming exists almost entirely by depending on computers. Programmers are translators between natural language and machine language. In the past, machines could not understand natural language, so people who understood machine language were needed to “communicate” with machines. Programming disappears not when computers disappear, but when machines can recognize natural language.

The programming languages you worked so hard to learn may soon be useless. Python may not be worth more than Thai or Hindi in the future. C++ may become almost equivalent to Nigerian languages or Esperanto. The original sin of programming is that it connects with objects rather than people.

And AI destroys precisely the link between people and objects. In the future, that chain will no longer need humans.

Do not think advanced work cannot be replaced. Do not think knowledge-intensive work cannot be replaced. Any occupational bubble of history is an object of AI replacement. The blind fortune teller in your hometown county who only finished primary school is not a historical bubble occupation. The major-tech-company employee who survived nine years of compulsory education, college, and graduate school is. The fortune teller survives by connecting with people. Have you successfully connected with people inside a big company? Have you realized that what determines your status and risk of being fired is not your professional ability, but the depth and strength of your human connections? If you realize this, you will be better off.

Whether your occupation may be replaced by AI does not depend on how advanced it is, nor on how long it takes to learn. It depends on whether it connects with people. If it does not connect with people, it will be replaced.

Living with AI While Afraid

There are many reasons for refusing to understand AI: blocked information, or a lack of courage to face reality. But the essence of fearing AI is only one thing: people fear being abandoned by society. The fear of AI has a traceable basis. AI seems to enter everywhere and do everything; this indirectly shows how large, broad, hard, and growth-oriented its capacity is.

In general, however, AI destroys the link between people and objects, not the link between people and people.

No matter your age, occupation, or identity, you may have to try AI. AI has evolved to the point where it can contract out almost all force-work for humanity. Confucius once said, “The gentleman is not a vessel.” In the AI era, if you are not such a person, you probably cannot survive.

Fortunately, since you have found this essay, it means you have already realized the weight of AI.

The existence of AI is essentially forcing humanity to return to the human itself, instead of serving as electronic labor.

In the view of Toyotomi Hideyoshi during Japan’s Warring States period, the standard for whether someone could be a warrior often did not lie in martial skill, but in their perception of momentum and their attitude toward death or change.

A true warrior must be extremely sensitive to the battlefield. Those who feel no fear and only charge blindly are dead soldiers; those who feel fear and therefore judge timing, weigh momentum, and search for opportunity possess the quality to command armies.

As carbon-based beings, the only capacity by which humans can surpass AI is the enormous potential activated by fear in the face of death: the potential of a desperate final struggle. Before death, humans can generate a sixth sense beyond reason. Fear is not weakness; it is an a priori warning that the logic of an era is collapsing.

Fear is the expert’s biological response to the giant wave of the age.

Those who refuse to understand AI, or cannot even feel the threat, have already been logically placed among those to be eliminated.

There are two attitudes toward AI: fearing AI, and refusing to understand AI.

I am certain the former is far better than the latter. If you have successfully developed fear toward AI, it means your understanding of AI has already gone to a certain depth. You have at least some sharp senses. You are already one large step ahead of those who refuse to understand it.

You have already recognized the changes AI will bring. You will unconsciously correct your behavior. Stop being physical labor or electronic labor. Admit your fear of AI, overcome your instinct to retreat, and dance with the future destroyer of humanity.

Those who fear AI, while fearing it, are precisely the ones who do not need to fear it. Those who fear AI do not need to fear AI; those who do not fear AI need to fear it.

Just embrace AI with your fear, as a warrior embraces death.

02 / 命理 · Bazi

社会表演与阶级:基于八字十神逻辑的社会五层结构分析A Five-Layer Model of Social Class

基于八字十神逻辑,对社会身份、阶级结构与表演秩序的分析。A social class model built from the logic of Bazi ten gods.

更新时间:2026.05.06Updated: 2026.05.06

自然人的平等与社会人的不平等

中国古代讲“男有份,女有归”。用战国思想家的话来说,没有“份”的人,或者用近现代的话说,没有“社会身份”的人,在本质上是绝对平等的。

然而,当男人有了“份”,女人有了“归”,当每个人都戴上了社会身份的面具,不平等也就随之出现了。

自然人状态下,众生平等;社会人状态下,阶级森严。

社会中从来就没有真正的平等。很多人试图给阶级定性,有人按存款,有人按官阶,分出十几层;西方人喜欢分三层:资产阶级、中产阶级和无产阶级;我们尊敬的老康米们把世界简化为资产与无产的二元对立。

但我认为,这些划分都太流于表面。阶级的划分应当遵循某种更为老古董的逻辑,更简洁地划分,因为简洁意味着接近本质。

我某天晚上如雷劈一般窜出来一个想法,用八字的十神相生逻辑。这种划分下只有五层,每一层之间都有着质的差别,阶级间的鸿沟难以逾越,阶级间的交流近乎断绝,下面是我的假想。

纯胡扯的瞎想

第一层:努力阶级(比劫阶级)

参与逻辑:靠体力参与社会分工。 这是社会中基数最大、也最容易被理解的阶级。比劫在八字中代表手脚、同辈和体力。

处于这一阶级的人,其生存的核心在于“消耗”——消耗肌肉、消耗能量、消耗时间。他们没有太多的技术壁垒,主要依靠高频的重复劳动来换取生存资源。

这个阶级最常见,却也最辛苦,因为他们的竞争者是无数同质化的人力。

第二层:做题阶级(食伤阶级)参与逻辑:靠脑力与技能参与社会分工。

食神与伤官代表才华、输出与技术。这个阶级的人不再单纯依靠体力,而是依靠对某种知识或技能的“转化”来生存。

样本分析:理发师与厨师: 一个只靠肌肉记忆的大锅饭厨师属于努力阶级,但一个有审美、能重塑形象的造型师或厨师,则跨入了做题阶级。

专业人士: 程序员、命理师、律师、教师和医生。

处于这个阶级的人,本质上是在解决复杂的问题,也是社会运行的零件。

第三层:资本阶级(财星阶级)参与逻辑:靠决策参与社会分工。

财星阶级的核心不在于“有多少钱”,而在于“如何做决定”。

这个阶级的人不亲自做苦力,也不亲自“做题”,他们站在分岔路口,利用手头的资源进行博弈与决策。

决策的本质是对未来的预判,是把风险转化为收益的能力。他们不再是社会的零件,而是操纵零部件的某一枢纽元件。

第四层:管理阶级(官杀阶级)

参与逻辑:靠冒险与威慑参与社会分工。 官杀阶级是社会的骨干。很多人认为管理阶级就是安稳,其实恰恰相反,这一阶级的核心是“冒险”。

管理本质上是对权力的行使与对后果的承担。处于官杀阶级的人,必须在复杂的规则中进行博弈,他们利用权力的杠杆来组织生产、控制秩序。

这是一种高压力的生活,也是一种具备掠夺性与保护性双重属性的阶级。

第五层:图腾阶级(印枭阶级)

参与逻辑:靠自身形成的精神图腾参与社会分工。

这是人类社会的顶点。印星代表名誉、保护、学问与信仰。图腾阶级的人,已经超越了具体的事务和决策,他们本身就变成了一种精神符号。

国家元首与宗教领袖: 他们是族群意志的凝聚核心,是权力的背书。

社会进步推动者: 那些不仅做出成果,且成果改变了人类认知维度的科学家。

如果爱因斯坦、牛顿的理论只是停留在实验室,他们只是高级“做题家”;但当他们的名字变成了真理的代名词,他们就上升为了图腾阶级。

英雄: 像岳飞、李舜臣、圣女贞德这样的人,他们能凝聚起一个民族的团结意志,即便肉体消亡,精神图腾依然在行使着分工职能。

八字本身可能就是一种阶级模型。

八字是一种老古董的东西,很多人不信,但我相信的是古代人的脑结构基本上跟现代人没有什么差异的,他们想出来的很多东西不会差于现代人,尤其是考虑到古代的社会结构相对单纯,于是就更不容易被近代、现代、后现代的各种繁杂符号给迷惑,我相信八字的设计者在创造这个小游戏的时候是有考虑到这一点的。

The Equality of Natural Persons and the Inequality of Social Persons

In ancient China people said, “Men have their share; women have their belonging.” In the language of Warring States thinkers, people without a “share,” or in modern terms without a social identity, are essentially absolutely equal.

Yet once men have a “share” and women have a “belonging,” once every person puts on the mask of social identity, inequality appears with it.

In the state of natural persons, all beings are equal. In the state of social persons, hierarchy is strict.

There has never been true equality in society. Many people try to define class: some by deposits, some by official rank, dividing society into a dozen layers. Westerners like to divide it into three: capitalist class, middle class, and proletariat. The old communists we respect simplify the world into the binary opposition of property and propertylessness.

But I think these divisions remain too superficial. The division of class should follow some older logic, and it should divide more simply, because simplicity means approaching essence.

One night an idea struck me like lightning: use the generating logic of the Ten Gods in Bazi. Under this division there are only five layers. Between every layer there is a qualitative difference; the gap between classes is difficult to cross, and communication between classes is nearly cut off. What follows is my conjecture.

A Wild Speculation

First Layer: The Effort Class (Peer-Star Class)

Participation logic: relying on physical strength to participate in social division of labor. This is the largest and easiest class to understand. In Bazi, peer stars represent hands and feet, peers, and physical force.

For people in this class, the core of survival is consumption: consuming muscle, energy, and time. They do not have many technical barriers and mainly exchange high-frequency repetitive labor for survival resources.

This class is the most common, and also the hardest, because its competitors are countless homogenized units of labor.

Second Layer: The Problem-Solving Class (Output-Star Class)

Participation logic: relying on mental ability and skill to participate in social division of labor. Eating God and Hurting Officer represent talent, output, and technique. People in this class no longer rely solely on physical strength; they survive by transforming a form of knowledge or skill.

Sample analysis: hairdressers and cooks. A cafeteria cook relying only on muscle memory belongs to the effort class, but a stylist or chef with aesthetics and the ability to reshape an image enters the problem-solving class.

Professionals: programmers, fate analysts, lawyers, teachers, and doctors.

People in this class are essentially solving complex problems. They are also parts in the operation of society.

Third Layer: The Capital Class (Wealth-Star Class)

Participation logic: relying on decision-making to participate in social division of labor. The core of the wealth-star class is not “how much money one has,” but “how one makes decisions.”

People in this class do not personally do hard labor, nor do they personally solve problems. They stand at forks in the road and use the resources in hand for games and decisions.

The essence of decision-making is judging the future and transforming risk into return. They are no longer parts of society, but a hub component that manipulates parts.

Fourth Layer: The Management Class (Authority-Star Class)

Participation logic: relying on risk and deterrence to participate in social division of labor. The authority-star class is the backbone of society. Many people think management means stability, but the opposite is true: the core of this class is risk-taking.

Management is essentially the exercise of power and the bearing of consequences. People in the authority-star class must play games within complex rules. They use the lever of power to organize production and control order.

This is a high-pressure life, and also a class with both predatory and protective attributes.

Fifth Layer: The Totem Class (Seal-Star Class)

Participation logic: relying on a spiritual totem formed by oneself to participate in social division of labor. This is the peak of human society. The seal star represents reputation, protection, learning, and faith. People in the totem class have gone beyond concrete affairs and decisions; they themselves have become a spiritual symbol.

Heads of state and religious leaders: they are the core in which the will of a group condenses, and they provide endorsement for power.

Promoters of social progress: scientists who not only produce results, but whose results change the dimension of human cognition.

If the theories of Einstein and Newton had remained only in the laboratory, they would merely be advanced problem-solvers. But when their names became synonyms for truth, they rose into the totem class.

Heroes: people such as Yue Fei, Yi Sun-sin, and Joan of Arc can gather the unifying will of a nation. Even when their bodies disappear, their spiritual totems continue to perform a function in social division of labor.

Bazi itself may be a class model.

Bazi is an ancient thing. Many people do not believe in it, but I believe the brain structure of ancient people was basically no different from that of modern people. Many things they conceived are not inferior to modern ideas. Especially because ancient social structures were relatively simple, they were less likely to be confused by the tangled symbols of the modern, late-modern, and postmodern worlds. I believe the designers of Bazi considered this when they created this small game.

03 / 杂谈 · Notes

运气偏爱单纯Luck Prefers Simplicity

关于焦虑、减熵、简约、清纯与运气的个人思考。Notes on anxiety, entropy reduction, simplicity, and luck.

更新时间:2026.05.06Updated: 2026.05.06

个人思考,由 AI 整理

重新定义焦虑:它可能是你内在系统的“热寂”

我观察到一个很有意思的现象:很多人焦虑,并不是因为贫穷或学历低,而是因为“知道”得太多了。在热力学中,熵是无序的度量;而在人生逻辑里,熵就是你那些未被转化为行动的信息。当你每天摄入海量的资讯,脑子里装满了各种他人的生活逻辑,但现实中的行动却几乎为零时,这种知行的严重失衡就会产生巨大的“熵”。焦虑,本质上就是这种高熵状态带来的精神内耗。想要新生,唯一的路就是学会削减熵值,把注意力从“知道”拉回到“做到”上。

李小龙的启发:知行合一的动态平衡

关于如何变强,我其实很认同一种朴素的平衡观:牛逼且不痛苦的人,往往在“知道”和“做过”之间达成了一种微妙的对等。很多人虽然厉害但很痛苦,是因为他们知道得多、做得也多,但两者完全失衡了。其实我们并不需要知道太多。李小龙曾说,他只怕那种把一个踢腿练了一万遍的人。这种极度的单纯和重复,其实就是一种高效的减熵过程。如果你光是知道而不去做,那就是在增熵,是趋向精神的停滞;而一旦开始行动,哪怕知道得少一点,你也会逐渐走向一种通透的、不焦虑的状态。

为什么“减熵”要先从外部世界开始?

我经常建议身边的朋友,如果觉得心里乱,不要急着去解决内心的矛盾,先去清理物理环境。我发现一个逻辑:内部世界的熵往往是不好直接操作的,它像个终极Boss。但外部世界和内部世界是互通的。很多人试图通过各种高端的心理建设来减熵,结果往往惨败。其实最好的办法是从外部开始,通过简化你的生活环境来影响你的内心。这也就是所谓的“简约(Kanyoku)”。当你的物理空间变得清爽、有序,你内部世界的信噪比自然会提高,你才有余力去处理那些深层次的焦虑。

“每天丢掉十样东西”:一种实用的减熵操练

我曾听过一个很日本式的办法:每天强制自己丢掉家里的十样东西。听起来很极端,但背后其实是在训练一种“舍弃的能力”。丢东西的过程,本质上是你重新审视自己与物品关系的过程。当你翻出那些陈年旧物,问自己“这对我还重要吗”的时候,你其实是在清理自己的思绪路径。这种舍弃让你明白:哪些是生命中不可或缺的,哪些只是随波逐流买下的“废品”。丢得越多,你的系统就越轻盈,这种轻盈会转化为一种掌控感,让你在处理复杂问题时变得更加游刃有余。

乔布斯的“制服”:极致简约背后的决策成本

我们看乔布斯,他常年只穿一个款式的衣服、开一个款式的车,这并不是简单的个性使然。我更愿意把它理解为一种极高明的“减熵策略”。人每天的意志力是有限的。通过固定这些生活琐碎,他在物理层面最大程度地减少了无谓的信息量和选择成本。他最清楚如何简约:通过不断舍弃那些非必需的东西,清空出一条最纯粹的路径,从而把所有的能量都聚焦在产品和创新上。这种低熵状态,正是他能够带领苹果暴打那些高熵竞争对手的核心武器。

房间里的“贫穷密码”:秩序与财富的关联

我偶尔会去观察不同阶层朋友的居家状态。我发现,越是能够掌控自己命运的人,家里往往越没有多余的陈设。相反,有些朋友虽然很努力,但家里总是塞满了塑料袋、过期的药和落灰的旧充电器。这反映出一种“简约品德”的缺失。不用的东西如果一直存在,它们就在你的空间里持续制造无序的熵。古人说“一屋不扫何以扫天下”,其实很有道理:如果一个人连自己最基础的物理环境都无法维持简约,那他面对复杂的社会和经济博弈时,大概率也会陷入一种“什么都想要但什么都做不好”的混沌状态。

命理中的“清纯”与现实中的能量聚焦

我记得在一些传统的命运分析逻辑里,有一种格局被称为“清纯”,这种格局的人往往容易有所成就。这其实对应了能量的聚焦:当一个人的目标过多、欲望散乱时,他的能量就是散的,一触即溃。相反,那些能量聚集到一点的人,往往能实现突破。正如所谓的“代表欲望的星太多而自身意志太弱”容易导致贫穷一样。要避免这种困局,唯一的办法就是主动删除那些不重要的目标,修剪掉不必要的喜好。少即是多,只有清理出唯一的路径,人生才会有真正意义上的“爆发”。

“暴发”的底层真相:减熵完成后的副产品

我们常看到某人瞬间“暴发”了,但我更倾向于认为,暴发是减熵累积到一定程度的自然结果。高手通常都在做减法,他们在暴发前,其实是在不断通过排除法,把那些看似诱人但实际是坑的选择一个个剔除掉。这个积蓄的过程就是减熵。当你把周遭的混乱理清,把所有的能量聚集在最正确的方向上,所谓的暴发不过是水到渠成的一件小赠品。所以,与其渴望暴发,不如先去搞清楚:在你的当下,什么是可以放弃的,什么是必须坚持的。

运气属于谁?单纯才是最高级的“低熵”

我有时候觉得,运气这东西挺玄,但它似乎更偏爱那些“单纯”的人。这里的单纯不是傻,而是一种低熵状态:低期待、专注于喜欢的事、在钻研中悟道。复杂的人往往运气不好,因为他们的系统太乱了,充满了算计、纠结和恐惧,这些都是高熵的干扰项。而单纯的人,像那个卖茶的印度小伙Dolly Chaiwala,他只是把一个动作练到极致,把卖茶这件事做成了艺术。这种极致的纯粹吸引了机会。保护好你的单纯,不要让过度的算计损害了你的运气。

给自己一个新生的机会:只要开始减熵就不算晚

每一个人天生都是低熵的、充满生机的,就像婴儿一样受人喜爱。但随着时间推移,我们往往会让灵魂蒙上灰尘,在二三十岁就陷入高熵的拧巴和畏缩中。但我也相信,一个人的未来只跟当下有关。如果有一天,你回想起自己这一生过得太累、太不自洽,那可能仅仅是因为你一直在做加法。忘掉那些所谓的出身、家境或过去的失败,从当下开始做减法,去学会减熵的品德。这种对生活秩序的主动重构,本身就是一种最强大的生命力。

Personal reflections, organized by AI.

Redefining Anxiety: It May Be the “Heat Death” of Your Inner System

I have noticed an interesting phenomenon: many people are anxious not because they are poor or poorly educated, but because they know too much. In thermodynamics, entropy measures disorder. In the logic of life, entropy is the information you have not converted into action. When you take in massive amounts of information every day and fill your mind with other people’s life logic while taking almost no action in reality, the serious imbalance between knowing and doing produces enormous entropy. Anxiety is essentially the mental depletion brought by this high-entropy state. The only road to renewal is to learn to reduce entropy and pull attention back from knowing to doing.

Bruce Lee’s Lesson: The Dynamic Balance of Knowing and Doing

On how to become stronger, I actually agree with a simple idea of balance: powerful people who are not miserable often reach a subtle equivalence between what they know and what they have done. Many people are capable yet painful because they know a lot and do a lot, but the two are completely out of balance. In truth, we do not need to know so much. Bruce Lee once said he feared the person who practiced one kick ten thousand times. That extreme simplicity and repetition is an efficient process of entropy reduction. If you only know and never do, you are increasing entropy and moving toward mental stagnation. Once you begin to act, even if you know a little less, you gradually move toward a clear and unanxious state.

Why Entropy Reduction Should Begin with the Outer World

I often advise friends who feel mentally chaotic not to rush into solving inner contradictions. First, clean the physical environment. I have found a logic: the entropy of the inner world is often hard to operate on directly; it is like a final boss. But the outer and inner worlds communicate with each other. Many people try to reduce entropy through advanced psychological construction, and they often fail badly. The best method is to begin outside and influence the inner world by simplifying the living environment. This is what I call simplicity. When your physical space becomes clear and orderly, the signal-to-noise ratio of your inner world naturally rises, and you have energy left to handle deeper anxiety.

Throw Away Ten Things Every Day: A Practical Exercise in Entropy Reduction

I once heard a very Japanese-style method: force yourself to throw away ten things at home every day. It sounds extreme, but behind it is training the ability to let go. The process of discarding objects is essentially a process of reexamining your relationship with things. When you find old items and ask yourself whether they still matter, you are actually clearing your own paths of thought. This abandonment lets you understand which things are indispensable in life and which are merely waste bought by following the current. The more you discard, the lighter your system becomes. That lightness turns into a sense of control and makes you more composed when dealing with complex problems.

Steve Jobs’s “Uniform”: Decision Cost Behind Extreme Simplicity

Look at Steve Jobs: for years he wore the same style of clothing and drove the same style of car. This was not merely personal eccentricity. I prefer to understand it as a highly intelligent entropy-reduction strategy. A person’s willpower each day is limited. By fixing these trivial parts of life, he minimized meaningless information and choice cost at the physical level. He understood simplicity: by constantly abandoning the nonessential, he cleared a pure path and focused all energy on product and innovation. This low-entropy state was a core weapon that let him lead Apple against high-entropy competitors.

The Poverty Code in a Room: The Link Between Order and Wealth

I occasionally observe the homes of friends from different social levels. I find that people who can control their own fate often have fewer unnecessary objects at home. By contrast, some friends work very hard, but their homes are always stuffed with plastic bags, expired medicine, and dusty old chargers. This reflects a lack of the virtue of simplicity. If unused things continue to exist, they continuously produce disorder in your space. The ancient saying “If one cannot sweep one room, how can one sweep the world?” is quite reasonable. If a person cannot maintain simplicity in the most basic physical environment, then when facing complex social and economic games, they will probably fall into a chaotic state of wanting everything and doing nothing well.

“Purity” in Fate Theory and Energy Focus in Reality

I remember that in some traditional systems of fate analysis, there is a pattern called “purity.” People with such a pattern often achieve something. This corresponds to focused energy. When a person has too many goals and scattered desires, their energy is dispersed and collapses at a touch. By contrast, people who gather energy into one point often achieve breakthrough. Just as having too many stars representing desire while one’s own will is too weak can lead to poverty, the only way to avoid this trap is to actively delete unimportant goals and prune unnecessary preferences. Less is more. Only by clearing out a single path can life have a real eruption.

The Underlying Truth of Sudden Success: A Byproduct of Completed Entropy Reduction

We often see someone suddenly become successful, but I am more inclined to believe that sudden success is the natural result of entropy reduction accumulated to a certain degree. Experts are usually doing subtraction. Before the eruption, they are in fact constantly using elimination to remove choices that look tempting but are actually traps. This accumulation process is entropy reduction. When you sort out the chaos around you and gather all energy in the most correct direction, the so-called eruption is merely a small gift that comes when water reaches the channel. So instead of longing for sudden success, first clarify what can be abandoned now and what must be persisted in.

Who Receives Luck? Simplicity Is the Highest Form of Low Entropy

Sometimes I feel that luck is mysterious, but it seems to prefer simple people. Here, simplicity does not mean stupidity. It means a low-entropy state: low expectation, focus on what one likes, and awakening through practice. Complex people often have bad luck because their systems are too chaotic, full of calculation, entanglement, and fear. These are all high-entropy disturbances. Simple people, like the Indian tea seller Dolly Chaiwala, simply practice one movement to the extreme and turn selling tea into an art. This extreme purity attracts opportunity. Protect your simplicity; do not let excessive calculation damage your luck.

Give Yourself a Chance at Renewal: It Is Never Too Late to Begin Reducing Entropy

Every person is born low-entropy and full of vitality, loved like an infant. But as time passes, we often let dust cover the soul and fall into high-entropy tension and fear by our twenties or thirties. Still, I believe a person’s future is connected only to the present. If one day you look back and feel that your life has been too tiring and inauthentic, perhaps it is only because you have always been adding. Forget so-called background, family conditions, or past failures. Begin subtracting now, and learn the virtue of entropy reduction. This active reconstruction of life order is itself a powerful life force.

— 06 / Language Index

全球语言影响力排行榜Global Language Influence Ranking

此区域预留给后续数据展示,可接入学术产出、人口规模、外交使用、互联网内容与计算支持等指标。Reserved for future data display, including academic output, population, diplomacy, web presence, and computational support.

01英语学术 / 互联网 / 外交98.4
02汉语人口 / 经济 / 研究91.7
03西班牙语人口扩散 / 文化传播82.9
04法语外交 / 教育 / 非洲76.2
05阿拉伯语宗教 / 区域 / 媒体72.8